Middling in AFL?

JohnnyB · Mar 1, 2008

I remember people last year talking about huge line movements, teams opening at +7 and closing at -7.

When guys here posted Dal -1.5, I jumped on it and last night bought back Geo +5.5, each risking $55 to win $50, so in essence risking $5 to win $100.

Is this a profitable middle? I know the 3 is not as strong in Arena as the NFL or NCAAF, but are bets like these still worthwhile? Are the key numbers in AFL different from NFL, and if so, what are they? How far must a line move before a middle is profitable? I know people have studied this extensively in the NFL and have graphs and charts showing what percent of games land on certain numbers and thus figuring out what a profitable middle would be. Has anyone ever done this for the AFL?

AFLGuru · Mar 1, 2008

Middles are so damn hard to come by the in AFL. It really is a matter of dumb luck. If Georgia's last play was a TD, you hit the middle. You'll find that 5-6 pt middles will probably win you a good sum of change in the long run, but honestly, you're better off sticking with the line movement. What % of the time do you think the line movement is correct? If you can get in at a good number, you should just hold onto it.

Woody0 · Mar 1, 2008

Johnny B said:
When guys here posted Dal -1.5, I jumped on it and last night bought back Geo +5.5, each risking $55 to win $50, so in essence risking $5 to win $100.

Of course its easy in hindsight but Georgia+4 (i.e +11 for the game) was widely available at halftime.

Since you already had a good bet at -1.5 considering the line moved in your favour it might have been prudent to wait.

sharky99 · Mar 1, 2008

Tough not to do if you get 7-10 pt moves but always like to get a better gage on the teams before doing it, but definitely tempting. I saw only the 2nd half but that was a poor display for the league, sloppy, penalties all over the place, just not what the league wanted to display to start the year.

KennyB · Mar 1, 2008

Some of you guys bash teasing games but if I jump on a game such as this one where I have Dallas -1 I will tease the dog if the line moves too much. If you had Georgia +11' you hit the middle.

JohnnyB · Mar 1, 2008

AFLGuru said:
You'll find that 5-6 pt middles will probably win you a good sum of change in the long run, but honestly, you're better off sticking with the line movement. What % of the time do you think the line movement is correct? If you can get in at a good number, you should just hold onto it.

True enough. Only thing is, I don't want to put $100 on a sport I know nothing about, blindly following someone else. If I try to middle I'm essentially only risking $5 to win that $100, and this sits better with me. $100 isn't a lot, especially if I KNOW I have an edge, but putting $100 down when I have to trust someone else's word that it's an edge is a little tougher.

d1g1t